Summary
- Market Environment: Q4 capped a volatile year, with late-quarter stabilization and early signs of improved breadth across SMID Cap stocks.
- Style Trends: Lower-quality, higher-volatility stocks led much of 2025, though high-quality and mid-cap stocks began to recover late in the year.
- Performance: The SMID Cap Core Strategy returned +1.4% net, trailing the Russell 2500’s +2.2%, with most underperformance occurring early in the quarter.
- Attribution: Security selection was the primary headwind, particularly in Technology, Industrials, and Health Care, where speculative stocks outperformed.
- Positive Contributors: Consumer holdings and Financials selection added value, while an underweight to biotech limited gains in Health Care.
- Earnings & Valuation: SMID Cap earnings growth is expected to accelerate, with forecasts calling for ~15% near-term growth and stronger gains into 2026, alongside attractive valuations vs. Large Cap.
- Outlook: The strategy remains focused on high-quality companies and disciplined positioning, with SMID Caps well positioned for long-term relative outperformance.
Video Transcript
Hello, I am Brian Kute, Senior Portfolio Manager at Johnson Asset Management.
I will provide a brief quarterly update on our SMID Cap Core strategy.
The fourth quarter provided a relatively calm finish to what was a rollercoaster year for equity markets.
In 2025, high-quality SMID Cap stocks underperformed by the widest margin since 2009.
From April through October, lower-quality and higher-volatility stocks led the market recovery.
November and December marked a broadening of though, with mid-cap stocks recovering ground lost earlier to small caps and high-quality stocks beginning to improve their relative performance.
The SMID Cap Core strategy returned 1.4% net of fees during the fourth quarter, compared to 2.2% for the Russell 2500 Index.
The majority of the underperformance occurred in October, driven by our high-quality bias during a period when lower-quality stocks continued to lead.
Security selection was the primary headwind, particularly in sectors with wide quality dispersion such as Technology, Industrials, and Health Care, where some of the best performers were highly speculative companies that fell short of our quality mandate.
Within Technology, software stocks — which are typically more stable than semiconductor stocks — faced pressure amid concerns around potential AI disruption to established business models.
Health Care was the portfolio’s strongest-performing sector, but an underweight to biotechnology — which rose more than 20% during the quarter — created a headwind at the industry level.
On the positive side, Consumer sectors contributed meaningfully, led by Coca-Cola Consolidated, the portfolio’s top-performing holding for the quarter and an underweight in Consumer Discretionary.
Financials security selection also added value.
Markets have spent much of the year digesting an unusually wide range of macro themes, including AI innovation, tariffs, shifting monetary policy, and geopolitical risk.
Despite these uncertainties, earnings risk has receded and valuations have risen.
Looking ahead, SMID Cap companies are expected to deliver approximately 15% year-over-year earnings growth in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace since early 2022, with consensus projecting an acceleration to nearly 30% growth in 2026.
While these forecasts tend to prove optimistic, we believe SMID Cap earnings growth is well positioned to outpace Large Caps, and with a meaningful valuation discount, a SMID Cap portfolio should be well positioned for attractive relative returns.
Thank you for your time.
Published 01/28/2026
Johnson Asset Management (JAM) is a division of Johnson Investment Counsel, Inc. (“JIC”), an independent and privately owned Midwestern based investment advisory firm registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Johnson Asset Management manages institutional separate account portfolios for a wide variety of for-profit and nonprofit organizations, public agencies, public and private retirement plans, and personal trusts of all sizes. It may also serve as sub-adviser for mutual funds. JIC’s fees are available upon request and may be found in our Form ADV Part 2A. Performance data quoted herein represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. All data is current as of September 30, 2025 unless otherwise noted. Returns and net asset value will fluctuate. To determine if this strategy is appropriate for you, carefully consider the investment objectives, risk factors, and expenses before investing. Individual account management and construction will vary depending on each client's investment needs and objectives. Investments employing JIC’s strategies are NOT insured by the FDIC or by any other Federal Government Agency, are NOT Bank deposits, are NOT guaranteed by any Bank or any Bank affiliate, and MAY lose value, including possible loss of principal. Johnson Asset Management claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards. The Institutional Core composite includes all fee paying, fully discretionary, actively managed institutional fixed income portfolios with a minimum value of $500,000 and an investment objective of broad investment grade, taxable fixed income, benchmarked against the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index. The US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. JAM’s policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance and preparing compliant presentations, as well as a complete list of composite descriptions are available upon request. Please contact our office at 513.389.2770 or 3777 West Fork Road, Cincinnati, OH 45247. All returns reflect the reinvestment of investment income (dividends and/or interest) and capital gains. Valuations and returns are stated in U.S. dollars. Trade date accounting is used. Portfolio returns are calculated using time weighed return methodology on a monthly basis. Net returns shown reflect gross performance less the highest fee schedule for this strategy. Actual client returns would also be reduced by brokerage commissions, custodial fees, and other client paid expenses detailed in JIC’s Form ADV Part 2A.