History Suggests Lower Yields from Here
Note: Day 0 = day of final Federal Reserve interest rate hike in each cycle
Source: Johnson Asset Management, Bloomberg, Data as of 7/24/2024
Both the trajectory of economic data, as well as communication from the Federal Reserve itself, continue to suggest that the next move from policy makers will be a rate cut. If that proves to be true, the current path of the 10-year treasury yield stands apart when compared to periods following the last rate hike in prior Fed cycles. While inflation pressures and the degree of macroeconomic uncertainty have made this cycle unique, historical precedent suggests the path for yields will be lower.
Published 07/31/2024
Johnson Investment Counsel cannot promise future results. Any expectations presented here should not be taken as any guarantee or other assurance as to future results. Our opinions are a reflection of our best judgment at the time this material was created, and we disclaim any obligation to update or alter forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
